RESUMEN
China government has relaxed the response measures of COVID-19 in early December 2022. In this report, we assessed the number of infections, the number of severe cases based on the current epidemic trend (October 22, 2022 to November 30, 2022) using a transmission dynamics model, called modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) to provide valuable information to ensure the medical operation of the healthcare system under the new situation. Our model showed that the present outbreak in Guangdong Province peaked during December 21, 2022 to December 25, 2022 with about 14.98 million new infections (95% CI: 14.23-15.73 million). The cumulative number of infections will reach about 70% of the province's population from December 24, 2022 to December 26, 2022. The number of existing severe cases is expected to peak during January 1, 2023 to January 5, 2023 with a peak number of approximately 101.45 thousand (95% CI: 96.38-106.52 thousand). In addition, the epidemic in Guangzhou which is the capital city of Guangdong Province is expected to have peaked around December 22, 2022 to December 23, 2022 with the number of new infections at the peak being about 2.45 million (95% CI: 2.33-2.57 million). The cumulative number of infected people will reach about 70% of the city's population from December 24, 2022 to December 25, 2022 and the number of existing severe cases is expected to peak around January 4, 2023 to January 6, 2023 with the number of existing severe cases at the peak being about 6.32 thousand (95% CI: 6.00-6.64 thousand). Predicted results enable the government to prepare medically and plan for potential risks in advance.
RESUMEN
Broad-spectrum antiviral drugs are urgently needed to stop the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic and prevent future ones. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is related to the SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), which have caused the previous outbreaks. The papain-like protease (PLpro) is an attractive drug target due to its essential roles in the viral life cycle. As a cysteine protease, PLpro is rich in cysteines and histidines, and their protonation/deprotonation modulates catalysis and conformational plasticity. Here, we report the pKa calculations and assessment of the proton-coupled conformational dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in comparison to SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV PLpros using the recently developed graphical processing unit (GPU)-accelerated implicit-solvent continuous constant pH molecular dynamics method with a new asynchronous replica-exchange scheme, which allows computation on a single GPU card. The calculated pKa's support the catalytic roles of the Cys-His-Asp triad. We also found that several residues can switch protonation states at physiological pH among which is C270/271 located on the flexible blocking loop 2 (BL2) of SARS-CoV-2/CoV PLpro. Simulations revealed that the BL2 can open and close depending on the protonation state of C271/270, consistent with the most recent crystal structure evidence. Interestingly, despite the lack of an analogous cysteine, BL2 in MERS-CoV PLpro is also very flexible, challenging a current hypothesis. These findings are supported by the all-atom fixed-charge simulations and provide a starting point for more detailed studies to assist the structure-based design of broad-spectrum inhibitors against CoV PLpros.